Enhanced active case finding of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Namibia: a protocol for the hotspots, hospitals, and households (H3TB) study.

INTRODUCTION: Namibia is a high tuberculosis (TB)-burden country with an estimated incidence of 460/100 000 (around 12 000 cases) per year. Approximately 4.5% of new cases and 7.9% of previously treated TB cases are multidrug resistant (MDR) and 47% of patients with MDR-TB are HIV coinfected. Published data suggest a clustering of MDR-TB transmission in specific areas. Identifying transmission clusters is key to implementing high-yield and cost-effective interventions. This includes knowing the yield of finding TB cases in high-transmission zones (eg, community hotspots, hospitals or households) to deliver community-based interventions. We aim to identify such transmission zones for enhanced case finding and evaluate the effectiveness of this approach. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: H3TB is an observational cross-sectional study evaluating MDR-TB active case finding strategies. Sputum samples from MDR-TB cases in three regions of Namibia will be evaluated by whole genome sequencing (WGS) in addition to routine sputum investigations (Xpert MTB/RIF, culture and drug susceptibility testing). We will collect information on household contacts, use of community spaces and geographical map intersections between participants, synthesising these data to identify transmission hotspots. We will look at the feasibility, acceptability, yield and cost of case finding strategies in these hotspots, and in households of patients with MDR-TB and visitors of hospitalised patients with MDR-TB. A compartmental transmission dynamic model will be constructed to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of the strategies if scaled. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval was obtained. Participants will give informed consent. H3TB will capitalise on a partnership with the Ministry of Health and Social Services to follow up individuals diagnosed with MDR-TB and integrate WGS data with innovative contact network mapping, to allow enhanced case finding. Study data will contribute towards a systems approach to TB control. Equally important, it will serve as a role model for similar studies in other high-incidence settings.

Quantifying the potential effects of air pollution reduction on population health and health expenditure in Taiwan.

Air pollution, particularly ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution, poses a significant risk to public health, underscoring the importance of comprehending the long-term impact on health burden and expenditure at national and subnational levels. Therefore, this study aims to quantify the disease burden and healthcare expenditure associated with PM2.5 exposure in Taiwan and assess the potential benefits of reducing pollution levels. Using a comparative risk assessment framework that integrates an auto-aggressive integrated moving average model, we evaluated the avoidable burden of cardiopulmonary diseases (including ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and diabetes mellitus) and related healthcare expenditure under different air quality target scenarios, including status quo and target scenarios of 15, 10, and 5 µg/m3 reduction in PM2.5 concentration. Our findings indicate that reducing PM2.5 exposure has the potential to significantly alleviate the burden of multiple diseases. Comparing the estimated attributable disease burden and healthcare expenditure between reference and target scenarios from 2022 to 2050, the avoidable disability-adjusted life years were 0.61, 1.83, and 3.19 million for the 15, 10, and 5 µg/m3 target scenarios, respectively. Correspondingly, avoidable healthcare expenditure ranged from US$ 0.63 to 3.67 billion. We also highlighted the unequal allocation of resources and the need for policy interventions to address health disparities due to air pollution. Notably, in the 5 µg/m3 target scenario, Kaohsiung City stands to benefit the most, with 527,368 disability-adjusted life years avoided and US$ 0.53 billion saved from 2022 to 2050. Our findings suggest that adopting stricter emission targets can effectively reduce the health burden and associated healthcare expenditure in Taiwan. Overall, this study provides policymakers in Taiwan with valuable insights for mitigating the negative effects of air pollution by establishing a comprehensive framework for evaluating the co-benefits of air pollution reduction on healthcare expenditure and disease burden.

Cardiovascular Disease Burden Attributable to High Body Mass Index in Taiwan.

Background: Studies on disease burden in Taiwan are lacking. We aimed to quantify the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) attributable to high body mass index (BMI) in Taiwan. Methods: Using a comparative risk assessment approach from the Global Burden of Disease study, we estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF), attributable CVD burden, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) according to sex, age, and area of residence in Taiwan. The BMI distribution for the population was obtained from the National Health Interview Survey in 2013. CVD was defined as an ischemic heart disease or stroke. Results: The attributable PAF for CVD from high BMI was 18.0% (19.6% in men and 15.6% in women), and it was highest (42.7%) in those aged 25-30 years. Adults aged 60-65 years had the highest absolute DALYs (11,546). The average relative age-standardized attributable burden was 314 DALYs per 100,000 person-years, and it was highest in those aged 75-80 years (1,407 DALYs per 100,000 person-years). Those living in Taitung County had the highest PAF of 21.9% and the highest age-standardized attributable burden (412 DALYs). Conclusions: In Taiwan, an 18% reduction in CVDs could be achieved if obesity/overweight was prevented. Prevention was most effective in early adulthood. The absolute CVD burden from obesity/overweight was highest in middle-aged men, and the relative burden was highest in older adults. Resource allocation in targeted populations and specific areas to eliminate CVD and health inequities is urgently required.

Diabetes and obesity and risk of pyogenic liver abscess.

Few literatures discussed the relationship of glycemic control and body mass index (BMI) with the risk of pyogenic liver abscess. We conducted a population-based cohort study using participants of a community-based health screening program in Taiwan from 2005 to 2008 (n = 125,865). Information on fasting plasma glucose (FPG), BMI, and other potential risk factors of liver abscess were collected at baseline. Incidence of pyogenic liver abscess was ascertained using inpatient records from the National Health Insurance database. During a median 8.6 years of followed up, 192 incident cases of pyogenic liver abscess were reported. The incidence rate of pyogenic liver abscess was 70.2 and 14.7 per 100,000 in the diabetic and non-diabetic population respectively. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 2.18 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-3.90) in patients with diabetes with good glycemic control (FPG ≤ 130 mg/dl) and 3.34 (95% CI 2.37-4.72) in those with poor glycemic control (FPG > 130 mg/dl), when compared with non-diabetics. In the dose-response analysis, the risk of liver abscess increased monotonically with increasing FPG. After adjusting for diabetes and other comorbidities, overweight (25 ≤ BMI < 30) (adjusted HR: 1.43, 95% CI 1.05-1.95) and obese (BMI ≥ 30) (adjusted HR: 1.75, 95% CI 1.09-2.81) populations had a higher risk of liver abscess when compared to people with normal weight. Diabetes, especially poorly controlled disease, and high BMI were associated with higher risk of pyogenic liver abscess. Improving glycemic control and weight reduction may reduce the risk of developing pyogenic liver abscess.

Prediabetes and risk of active tuberculosis: a cohort study from Northern Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a well-established risk factor for active tuberculosis (TB) infection. Despite the worldwide rapid increase in the prevalence of prediabetes, its impact on the risk of active TB remains largely unknown. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between prediabetes and risk of active TB in a large cohort study. METHODS: A total of 119 352 participants were screened from a community-based health screening programme in Northern Taiwan. Diabetes mellitus and prediabetes were defined by baseline fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and prescription of anti-diabetic drugs. Incident cases of active TB were identified from the National Tuberculosis Registry. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analysis were employed to estimate the hazard ratios for prediabetes and DM compared with normoglycaemia. Spline regression was performed to investigate the dose-response relationship between FPG level and risk of TB disease. RESULTS: At baseline, 27 404 (22.96%) participants had prediabetes and 10 943 (9.17%) participants had DM. After an average follow-up of 7.2 years, 322 TB cases occurred. The adjusted hazard ratio of developing active TB disease was 0.73 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.55-0.97] for prediabetic and 1.48 (95% CI 1.11-1.98) for diabetic participants compared with normoglycaemic individuals. Spline regression revealed a U-shaped association between FPG level and risk of active TB disease, with the lowest risk at FPG around110 mg/dl. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to exclude factors such as potential confounders (including body mass index), misclassification of glycaemic level, and selection bias, and results showed that those factors could not explain the lower risk of active TB. CONCLUSIONS: Prediabetes was associated with a 27% reduced risk of active TB disease compared with normoglycaemia. The biological mechanism of this inverse association and its implication for global nutrition transition and TB control should be further investigated.

Case-Finding Strategies for Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis: Protocol for a Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: Transmission of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) is ongoing. Finding individuals with DR-TB and initiating treatment as early as possible is important to improve patient clinical outcomes and to break the chain of transmission to control the pandemic. To our knowledge systematic reviews assessing effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, acceptability, and feasibility of different case-finding strategies for DR-TB to inform research, policy, and practice have not been conducted, and it is unknown whether enough research exists to conduct such reviews. It is unknown whether case-finding strategies are similar for DR-TB and drug-susceptible TB and whether we can draw on findings from drug-susceptible reviews to inform decisions on case-finding strategies for DR-TB. OBJECTIVE: This protocol aims to describe the available literature on case-finding for DR-TB and to describe case-finding strategies. METHODS: We will screen systematic reviews, trials, qualitative studies, diagnostic test accuracy studies, and other primary research that specifically sought to improve DR-TB case detection. We will exclude studies that invited individuals seeking care for TB symptoms, those including individuals already diagnosed with TB, or laboratory-based studies. We will search the academic databases including MEDLINE, Embase, The Cochrane Library, Africa-Wide Information, CINAHL, Epistemonikos, and PROSPERO with no language or date restrictions. We will screen titles, abstracts, and full-text articles in duplicate. Data extraction and analyses will be performed using Excel (Microsoft Corp). RESULTS: We will provide a narrative report with supporting figures or tables to summarize the data. A systems-based logic model, developed from a synthesis of case-finding strategies for drug-susceptible TB, will be used as a framework to describe different strategies, resulting pathways, and enhancements of pathways. The search will be conducted at the end of 2021. Title and abstract screening, full text screening, and data extraction will be undertaken from January to June 2022. Thereafter, analysis will be conducted, and results compiled. CONCLUSIONS: This scoping review will chart existing literature on case-finding for DR-TB-this will help determine whether primary studies on effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, acceptability, and feasibility of different case-finding strategies for DR-TB exist and will help formulate potential questions for a systematic review. We will also describe case-finding strategies for DR-TB and how they fit into a model of case-finding pathways for drug-susceptible TB. This review has some limitations. One limitation is the diverse, inconsistent use of intervention terminology within the literature, which may result in missing relevant studies. Poor reporting of intervention strategies may also cause misunderstanding and misclassification of interventions. Lastly, case-finding strategies for DR-TB may not fit into a model developed from strategies for drug-susceptible TB. Nevertheless, such a situation will provide an opportunity to refine the model for future research. The review will guide further research to inform decisions on case-finding policies and practices for DR-TB. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/40009.

Transmission Dynamics and Effectiveness of Control Measures during COVID-19 Surge, Taiwan, April-August 2021.

An unprecedented surge of COVID-19 cases in Taiwan in May 2021 led the government to implement strict nationwide control measures beginning May 15. During the surge, the government was able to bring the epidemic under control without a complete lockdown despite the cumulative case count reaching >14,400 and >780 deaths. We investigated the effectiveness of the public health and social measures instituted by the Taiwan government by quantifying the change in the effective reproduction number, which is a summary measure of the ability of the pathogen to spread through the population. The control measures that were instituted reduced the effective reproduction number from 2.0-3.3 to 0.6-0.7. This decrease was correlated with changes in mobility patterns in Taiwan, demonstrating that public compliance, active case finding, and contact tracing were effective measures in preventing further spread of the disease.

Effectiveness of controlling COVID-19 epidemic by implementing soft lockdown policy and extensive community screening in Taiwan.

Strict and repeated lockdowns have caused public fatigue regarding policy compliance and had a large impact on several countries' economies. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a soft lockdown policy and the strategy of active community screening for controlling COVID-19 in Taiwan. We used village-based daily confirmed COVID-19 statistics in Taipei City and New Taipei City, between May 2, 2021, and July 17, 2021. The temporal Gi* statistic was used to compute the spatiotemporal hotspots. Simple linear regression was used to evaluate the trend of the epidemic, positivity rate from community screening, and mobility changes in COVID-19 cases and incidence before and after a level three alert in both cities. We used a Bayesian hierarchical zero-inflated Poisson model to estimate the daily infection risk. The cities accounted for 11,403 (81.17%) of 14,048 locally confirmed cases. The mean effective reproduction number (Re) surged before the level three alert and peaked on May 16, 2021, the day after the level three alert in Taipei City (Re = 3.66) and New Taipei City (Re = 3.37). Mobility reduction and a lower positive rate were positively associated with a lower number of cases and incidence. In the spatiotemporal view, seven major districts were identified with a radial spreading pattern from one hard-hit district. Villages with a higher inflow degree centrality among people aged ≥ 60 years, having confirmed cases, specific land-use types, and with a higher aging index had higher infection risks than other villages. Early soft lockdown policy and detection of infected patients showed an effective strategy to control COVID-19 in Taiwan.

Long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and associations with cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer in Taiwan: a nationwide longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although a number of studies have reported on the health effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure, particularly in North American and European countries as well as China, the evidence about intermediate to high levels of PM2.5 exposures is still limited. We aimed to investigate the associations between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and risk of cardiopulmonary disease incidence in Taiwan with intermediate levels of PM2.5 exposure. METHODS: A cohort of Taiwanese adults, who participated in the 2001, 2005, 2009 and 2013 National Health Interview Surveys, was followed through 2016 to identify cardiopulmonary disease onset. Exposure to PM2.5 was estimated by incorporating a widespread monitoring network of air quality monitoring stations and microsensors. We used time-dependent Cox regression models to examine the associations between the PM2.5 exposures and health outcomes, adjusting for individual characteristics and ecological covariates. The natural cubic spline functions were used to explore the non-linear effects of the PM2.5 exposure. RESULTS: A total of 62 694 adults from 353 towns were enrolled. Each 10-µg/m3 increase in 5-year average exposure to PM2.5 was associated with a 4.8% increased risk of incident ischaemic heart disease (95% CI: -3.3, 13.6), 3.9% increased risk of incident stroke (95% CI: -2.9, 11.1), 6.7% increased risk of incident diabetes (95% CI: 1.1, 12.7), 15.7% increased risk of incident lung cancer (95% CI: -0.9, 35.1) and 11.5% increased risk of incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (95% CI: -0.8, 25.2). The concentration-response curve showed that there was no statistical evidence of non-linearity for most of the disease outcomes except for ischaemic heart disease (P for non-linearity = 0.014). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to intermediate levels of ambient PM2.5 was associated with cardiopulmonary health outcomes. Our study adds value to future application and national burden of disease estimation in evaluating the health co-benefits from ambient air pollution reduction policy in Asian countries.

County-Wide Mortality Assessments Attributable to PM2.5 Emissions from Coal Consumption in Taiwan.

Over one-third of energy is generated from coal consumption in Taiwan. In order to estimate the health impact assessment attributable to PM2.5 concentrations emitted from coal consumption in Taiwan. We applied a Gaussian trajectory transfer-coefficient model to obtain county-wide PM2.5 exposures from coal consumption, which includes coal-fired power plants and combined heat and power plants. Next, we calculated the mortality burden attributable to PM2.5 emitted by coal consumption using the comparative risk assessment framework developed by the Global Burden of Disease study. Based on county-level data, the average PM2.5 emissions from coal-fired plants in Taiwan was estimated at 2.03 ± 1.29 (range: 0.32-5.64) µg/m3. With PM2.5 increments greater than 0.1 µg/m3, there were as many as 16 counties and 66 air quality monitoring stations affected by coal-fired plants and 6 counties and 18 monitoring stations affected by combined heat and power plants. The maximum distances affected by coal-fired and combined heat and power plants were 272 km and 157 km, respectively. Our findings show that more counties were affected by coal-fired plants than by combined heat and power plants with significant increments of PM2.5 emissions. We estimated that 359.6 (95% CI: 334.8-384.9) annual adult deaths and 124.4 (95% CI: 116.4-132.3) annual premature deaths were attributable to PM2.5 emitted by coal-fired plants in Taiwan. Even in six counties without power plants, there were 75.8 (95% CI: 60.1-91.5) deaths and 25.8 (95%CI: 20.7-30.9) premature deaths annually attributable to PM2.5 emitted from neighboring coal-fired plants. This study presents a precise and effective integrated approach for assessing air pollution and the health impacts of coal-fired and combined heat and power plants.

Global burden of tuberculosis attributable to cancer in 2019: Global, regional, and national estimates.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is an independent risk factor for tuberculosis (TB). The global burden of incident TB attributable to cancer has never been explored. We aimed to evaluate the cancer-attributable burden of TB. METHODS: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) by Levin's formula. The cancer prevalence rates were derived from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The relative risk of TB in cancer patients was estimated by using the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan. The global burden of incidence TB attributable to cancer was the weighted sum of PAFs multiplied by the incidence of TB retrieved from the World Health Organization. RESULTS: Worldwide, the total of incident TB cases attributable to cancer was 115,478 cases with a 95% confidence interval (CI), 110,482-123,007, in 2019. The global PAF of TB due to cancer was 1.85% (95% CI, 1.77-1.97%). The three countries with the highest PAFs were Greenland (7.77%), Canada (7.75%), and the United States of America (6.79%), while the three countries with the highest attributable TB cases due to cancer were China (25,240), India (21,629), and Indonesia (13,917). Cancer of respiratory system contributed to 60,257 of TB cases. CONCLUSIONS: This study comprehensively explored the impact of cancer on the global burden of TB. Efforts to reduce cancer risk, delay the occurrence of cancer, or treat latent TB infection in the cancer population could potentially reduce the burden of TB and rely on formulating integrated strategies.

Time-dependent association between cancer and risk of tuberculosis: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate the time-dependent association between cancer and the risk of tuberculosis (TB) before and after cancer diagnosis. METHODS: This population-based cohort study incorporated the National Health Insurance Research Database and the National Health Interview Survey in Taiwan to estimate TB risk in cancer and noncancer populations. We estimated the period-specific incidence rate ratio (IRR) between cancer and risk of TB and used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the average hazard ratio between cancer and TB during the peridiagnostic period. RESULTS: From 2001 to 2015, 457 673 cancer and 3 738 122 noncancer individuals were enrolled. After stratifying the IRR of TB by year relative to the date of cancer diagnosis, the peak IRRs clustered in the year before and after the index date. In the peridiagnostic period of cancer, the adjusted hazard ratio was 2.29 (95% CI, 2.22-2.35) using the Cox model and 2.20 (95% CI, 2.09-2.32) after adjustment for missing confounders. Patients with cancers in the respiratory tract, upper digestive tract, and hematologic system were at the highest risk for TB. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer is an independent risk factor for TB, with the highest risk observed around the time of cancer diagnosis.

Comparison of Estimated Effectiveness of Case-Based and Population-Based Interventions on COVID-19 Containment in Taiwan.

Importance: Taiwan is one of the few countries with initial success in COVID-19 control without strict lockdown or school closure. The reasons remain to be fully elucidated. Objective: To compare and evaluate the effectiveness of case-based (including contact tracing and quarantine) and population-based (including social distancing and facial masking) interventions for COVID-19 in Taiwan. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative effectiveness study used a stochastic branching process model using COVID-19 epidemic data from Taiwan, an island nation of 23.6 million people, with no locally acquired cases of COVID-19 reported for 253 days between April and December 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Effective reproduction number of COVID-19 cases (the number of secondary cases generated by 1 primary case) and the probability of outbreak extinction (0 new cases within 20 generations). For model development and calibration, an estimation of the incubation period (interval from exposure to symptom onset), serial interval (time between symptom onset in an infector-infectee pair), and the statistical distribution of the number of any subsequent infections generated by 1 primary case was calculated. Results: This study analyzed data from 158 confirmed COVID-19 cases (median age, 45 years; interquartile range, 25-55 years; 84 men [53%]). An estimated 55% (95% credible interval [CrI], 41%-68%) of transmission events occurred during the presymptomatic stage. In our estimated analysis, case detection, contact tracing, and 14-day quarantine of close contacts (regardless of symptoms) was estimated to decrease the reproduction number from the counterfactual value of 2.50 to 1.53 (95% CrI, 1.50-1.57), which would not be sufficient for epidemic control, which requires a value of less than 1. In our estimated analysis, voluntary population-based interventions, if used alone, were estimated to have reduced the reproduction number to 1.30 (95% CrI, 1.03-1.58). Combined case-based and population-based interventions were estimated to reduce the reproduction number to below unity (0.85; 95% CrI, 0.78-0.89). Results were similar for additional analyses with influenza data and sensitivity analyses. Conclusions and Relevance: In this comparative effectiveness research study, the combination of case-based and population-based interventions (with wide adherence) may explain the success of COVID-19 control in Taiwan in 2020. Either category of interventions alone would have been insufficient, even in a country with an effective public health system and comprehensive contact tracing program. Mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic requires the collaborative effort of public health professionals and the general public.

The Association Between Body Mass Index and the Risk of Hospitalization and Mortality due to Infection: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: We aim to determine whether obesity increases the risk of various infections using a large prospective population-based cohort. METHODS: A total of 120 864 adults were recruited from the New Taipei City health screening program from 2005 to 2008. Statistics for hospitalization and mortality due to infection were obtained from the National Health Insurance Database and the National Death Registry in Taiwan. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up period of 7.61 years, there were 438, 7582, 5298, and 1480 first hospitalizations due to infection in the underweight, normal, overweight, and obese groups, respectively. Obesity significantly increases the risk of hospitalization for intra-abdominal infections (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.19; 95% CI, 1.00-1.40), including diverticulitis, liver abscess, acute cholecystitis and anal and rectal abscess, reproductive and urinary tract infection (aHR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.26-1.50), skin and soft tissue infection (aHR, 2.46; 95% CI, 2.15-2.81), osteomyelitis (aHR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.14-2.54), and necrotizing fasciitis (aHR, 3.54; 95% CI,1.87-6.67), and this relationship is dose-dependent. This study shows that there is a U-shaped association between body mass index (BMI) and hospitalization for lower respiratory tract infection, septicemia, and the summation of all infections and that underweight people are at the greatest risk, followed by obese people. There is a clear negative relationship between BMI and infection-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The pattern that BMI affects the risk of hospitalization and mortality due to infection varies widely across infection sites. It is necessary to tailor preventive and therapeutic measures against different infections in hosts with different BMIs.

Mortality, morbidity, and risk factors in Taiwan, 1990-2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Taiwan has implemented a national health insurance system since 1995 with high coverage and utilization rate. However, the health care system in Taiwan is facing immense challenges due to rapid population ageing. We have evaluated the landscape of population health by revisiting the results of GBD 2017 study. METHODS: Taiwan vital registration data (1980-2016) and Taiwan national health insurance database (2016) were used. We also conducted benchmarking comparisons with selected countries in East Asia from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: The age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates decreased by one-quarter from 1990 to 2017; however, progress was relatively slow compared to the comparator countries and has been stagnant recently. The Social-demographic Index (SDI) level in Taiwan in 2017 was 0.86, which is similar to Japan, Singapore, and South Korea in 2017, while the SDI level of China in 2017 was similar to that of Taiwan (0.69) in 1990. Although Taiwan's SDI reached the same level as those in Japan, Singapore, and South Korea in 2017, modifiable risk factors still contributed to nearly half of Taiwan's total disease burden. Five leading risk factors (high fasting plasma glucose, high body-mass index, alcohol use, illicit drug use, and impaired kidney function) accounted for a higher DALY rate in Taiwan than comparator countries in 2017. CONCLUSION: Taiwan made marked progress in health from 1990 to 2017. However, interventions targeted on major modifiable disease risk factors should be prioritized to realize the full potential of heath improvement in the process of rapid socioeconomic development.

Patient pathways of tuberculosis care-seeking and treatment: an individual-level analysis of National Health Insurance data in Taiwan.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with tuberculosis (TB) often experience difficulties in accessing diagnosis and treatment. Patient pathway analysis identifies mismatches between TB patient care-seeking patterns and service coverage, but to date, studies have only employed cross-sectional aggregate data. METHODS: We developed an algorithmic approach to analyse and interpret patient-level routine data on healthcare use and to construct patients' pathways from initial care-seeking to treatment outcome. We applied this to patients with TB in a simple random sample of one million patients' records in the Taiwan National Health Insurance database. We analysed heterogeneity in pathway patterns, delays, service coverage and patient flows between different health system levels. RESULTS: We constructed 7255 pathways for 6258 patients. Patients most commonly initially sought care at the primary clinic level, where the capacity for diagnosing TB patients was 12%, before eventually initiating treatment at higher levels. Patient pathways are extremely heterogeneous prior to diagnosis, with the 10% most complex pathways accounting for 48% of all clinical encounters, and 55% of those pathways yet to initiate treatment after a year. Extended consideration of alternative diagnoses was more common for patients aged 65 years or older and for patients with chronic lung disease. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrates that longitudinal analysis of routine individual-level healthcare data can be used to generate a detailed picture of TB care-seeking pathways. This allows an understanding of several temporal aspects of care pathways, including lead times to care and the variability in patient pathways.

Contact Tracing Assessment of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in Taiwan and Risk at Different Exposure Periods Before and After Symptom Onset.

Importance: The dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmissibility are yet to be fully understood. Better understanding of the transmission dynamics is important for the development and evaluation of effective control policies. Objective: To delineate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and evaluate the transmission risk at different exposure window periods before and after symptom onset. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective case-ascertained study in Taiwan included laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 and their contacts. The study period was from January 15 to March 18, 2020. All close contacts were quarantined at home for 14 days after their last exposure to the index case. During the quarantine period, any relevant symptoms (fever, cough, or other respiratory symptoms) of contacts triggered a COVID-19 test. The final follow-up date was April 2, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Secondary clinical attack rate (considering symptomatic cases only) for different exposure time windows of the index cases and for different exposure settings (such as household, family, and health care). Results: We enrolled 100 confirmed patients, with a median age of 44 years (range, 11-88 years), including 44 men and 56 women. Among their 2761 close contacts, there were 22 paired index-secondary cases. The overall secondary clinical attack rate was 0.7% (95% CI, 0.4%-1.0%). The attack rate was higher among the 1818 contacts whose exposure to index cases started within 5 days of symptom onset (1.0% [95% CI, 0.6%-1.6%]) compared with those who were exposed later (0 cases from 852 contacts; 95% CI, 0%-0.4%). The 299 contacts with exclusive presymptomatic exposures were also at risk (attack rate, 0.7% [95% CI, 0.2%-2.4%]). The attack rate was higher among household (4.6% [95% CI, 2.3%-9.3%]) and nonhousehold (5.3% [95% CI, 2.1%-12.8%]) family contacts than that in health care or other settings. The attack rates were higher among those aged 40 to 59 years (1.1% [95% CI, 0.6%-2.1%]) and those aged 60 years and older (0.9% [95% CI, 0.3%-2.6%]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, high transmissibility of COVID-19 before and immediately after symptom onset suggests that finding and isolating symptomatic patients alone may not suffice to contain the epidemic, and more generalized measures may be required, such as social distancing.

Explaining age disparities in tuberculosis burden in Taiwan: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) burden shows wide disparities across ages in Taiwan. In 2016, the age-specific notification rate in those older than 65 years old was about 100 times as much as in those younger than 15 years old (185.0 vs 1.6 per 100,000 population). Similar patterns are observed in other intermediate TB burden settings. However, driving mechanisms for such age disparities are not clear and may have importance for TB control efforts. METHODS: We hypothesised three mechanisms for the age disparity in TB burden: (i) older age groups bear a higher risk of TB progression due to immune senescence, (ii) elderly cases acquired TB infection during a past period of high transmission, which has since rapidly declined and thus contributes to little recent infections, and (iii) assortative mixing by age allows elders to maintain a higher risk of TB infection, while limiting spillover transmission to younger age groups. We developed a series of dynamic compartmental models to incorporate these mechanisms, individually and in combination. The models were calibrated to the TB notification rates in Taiwan over 1997-2016 and evaluated by goodness-of-fit to the age disparities and the temporal trend in the TB burden, as well as the deviance information criterion (DIC). According to the model performance, we compared contributions of the hypothesised mechanisms. RESULTS: The 'full' model including all the three hypothesised mechanisms best captured the age disparities and temporal trend of the TB notification rates. However, dropping individual mechanisms from the full model in turn, we found that excluding the mechanism of assortative mixing yielded the least change in goodness-of-fit. In terms of their influence on the TB dynamics, the major contribution of the 'immune senescence' and 'assortative mixing' mechanisms was to create disparate burden among age groups, while the 'declining transmission' mechanism served to capture the temporal trend of notification rates. CONCLUSIONS: In settings such as Taiwan, the current TB burden in the elderly may be impacted more by prevention of active disease following latent infection, than by case-finding for blocking transmission. Further studies on these mechanisms are needed to disentangle their impacts on the TB epidemic and develop corresponding control strategies.